COP15 is The Copenhagen Debacle?

Note: This post can also be found at http://sscinternational.org/

In terms of excitement, the first day of week two may surpass all five days of week one combined. Before lunch. The Group of 77 and China have halted formal negotiations over concerns that the Kyoto Protocol will be abandoned, and COP President Connie Hedegaard was a no-show for her scheduled briefing with youth as she (we assume) attempts to pick up the pieces.

In other news, rumors have been flying via email, twitter and the web that Canada has announced a courageous emissions reduction target of 40% of 1990 levels by 2020, 80% by 2050 and 5% of GDP annually by 2030 in financing. As of right now, I'd say that it looks like a stunt (props to Osman Faruqi for pointing out discrepancies between the WSJ site and the link site) possibly perpetrated by those devious activists the Yes Men. The truly sad part is how quickly people jumped to this conclusion. Is the idea that developed nations will step up with the actions this planet requires so completely far-fetched?

Finally, word has come down from the Secretariat that Observers (NGOs and IGOs) will be severely restricted in their access to the Bella Center for the rest of the week. Allegedly, only 90 (!) civil society delegates (out of around 7000 present today) will be allowed inside on Friday. Apparently CAN (Climate Action Network–the association of environmental NGOs) will be meeting with the UNFCCC people to register their complaints about how this action taints the entire Copenhagen process. Anybody want to bet on whether this appeal will be successful?

Considering these facts (huge and still growing division between developed/developing, no ambition from Annex I, poor logistical management by UNFCCC/hosts), I think it's fair to ask whether this conference will ultimately be viewed as a huge failure. And, of course, who will shoulder the blame. Obviously the finger pointing will know no bounds, but perhaps the nation with the most to lose is little old Denmark. This government has staked a lot on getting something (increasingly: anything) out of this conference. For this reason, and the fact that the numerous visiting heads of state don't wont to return home empty-handed, I'm guessing we will see some sort of agreement by the end of the week. But I'm becoming more and more afraid that this agreement will be weak and ultimately meaningless.

I hate being pessimistic, but it just doesn't seem like anybody (except maybe the small island states) are willing to do what it takes. May the leaders of this troubled world prove me wrong.